Strengthening of the AfD: Many people in Germany are considering moving away because of the AfD’s rise

Because of the AfD's political rise, significant parts of the population in Germany are considering moving away from their state – or even emigrating. This is the conclusion of a short study by the German Center for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM) in collaboration with researchers from the University of Leipzig, the Magdeburg-Stendal University of Applied Sciences and the University of Bielefeld. People with a migration background are particularly likely to consider leaving their state or Germany.

For the short study entitled Rejection, fear and plans to emigrate: The social consequences of the rise of the AfD The researchers will interview 3,000 people across Germany in March 2024 – shortly after the investigative media’s revelations correction to the meeting of right-wing extremists, AfD members and other members of the far-right spectrum in a villa in Potsdam. It is unclear to what extent the respondents’ assessments have changed after the election successes of the AfD in the European elections and the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia.

Almost one in ten people with a migration history has concrete plans to emigrate

Almost one in four people with a migration background who were surveyed were at least hypothetically considering leaving Germany. Among those without a migration background, more than one in ten said the same (11.7 percent). The proportion of those who said they had already made concrete plans was 9.3 percent of those with a migration background. This only applies to 1.9 percent of those without a migration background.

The figures are higher when asked about possible plans to emigrate to other federal states. According to the survey, more than a third (33.8 percent) of respondents with a migration background are considering moving to another federal state if the AfD were to participate in the government in their own federal state. 12.5 percent of these respondents have concrete plans, with people from the Arab world (24.1 percent) and from European non-EU countries (15.3 percent) reporting such plans particularly frequently. Among respondents without a migration background, almost one in seven (14.2 percent) are thinking about moving away, and a small proportion (3.4 percent) have concrete plans to do so.

Researcher sees economy in East Germany in danger

The study authors warn of devastating consequences for regions in which the AfD achieves strong results. “If almost one in five people think about leaving their state if the AfD wins, this means a loss of knowledge, know-how and economic capacity, especially for East Germany, that is almost unbearable,” says Gert Pickel, Professor of Church and Religious Sociology at the University of Leipzig. “In addition, with such an image, it will be virtually impossible to attract skilled workers.”

Bielefeld social psychologist Andreas Zick also sees the survey results as evidence of the division in society. “AfD sympathizers, in clear contrast to all other demographic and political groups, are more likely to agree with the right-wing radical concept of 'remigration', which aims to resettle large numbers of people.” This mood generates fear and thoughts of emigrating among those who think differently.